Evidence is stacking up to support a link between COVID-19 and a rare, mysterious inflammatory disease in children, which can be life-threatening.
Though reports of the new disease have trickled in from several countries, many of them have been anecdotal to this point. Now, doctors in an area of Italy hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic have published detailed data on a cluster of 10 children who experienced an unusual inflammatory disease amid the outbreak, lending solid support for the link. Their report appeared Wednesday in The Lancet.
The doctors describe the condition they saw as “Kawasaki-like,” referring to a rare disease in children that causes inflammation of blood vessels. Kawasaki disease—identified in Japan in 1967 by Tomisaku Kawasaki—is typically marked by sustained fever, rash, swelling of hands and feet, and swollen lymph nodes in the neck. In the worst cases, it can lead to heart problems and aneurysms.
Despite being identified decades ago, Kawasaki’s cause still remains unclear. Researchers have widely hypothesized that infectious agents—like viruses—trigger berserk immune responses in certain children with genetic predispositions. But no single germy culprit or genetic factors have been firmly nailed down. As such, it’s still unclear who will end up afflicted by the condition. Researchers have only determined that Kawasaki primarily strikes children younger than five, often boys, and often people of Asian and Pacific Island descent.
Since the pandemic began, there have been scattered reports of an uptick in cases of a disease similar to Kawasaki in children. The cases seem linked to outbreaks of COVID-19. However, they don’t always fit the “classic” definitions of Kawasaki.
In the new Lancet study, the Italian doctors offer a clear connection between infection with SARS-CoV-2 and the Kawasaki-like disease. They also lay out in detail how the cases they saw differ from the classic forms of the disease, laying the groundwork for a COVID-19-specific form of the disease.
Most people understand immunity to mean that once a person has been exposed to a disease, they can’t get it again. It’s an easy concept to grasp, and some people have hoped that widespread immunity could be the way out of this pandemic: If enough of the population becomes immune to the disease, the spread would be stopped, since the virus would run out of new, susceptible targets. The “herd” of immune people would protect everyone.
But getting to herd immunity without a vaccine isn’t as simple as the idea itself. A number of variables can affect when herd immunity is reached — and what it costs to get there — and they vary depending on the disease. How infectious is the disease? How deadly is it? And how long do people stay immune once they’ve gotten it? Adjusting any of these variables can drastically change the outcome of this equation. You can probably sense where this is heading …
We’ve built a very simplified version of how those variables interact. (You’ll see just how simple in the methodology beneath the simulator.) To be clear, this is not about COVID-19 itself — instead, our calculator shows how a theoretical disease we’re calling Fictionitis would play out in a population that has never encountered it before and does nothing to try to stop it.
. . .
The more people a person with Fictionitis infects on average, the higher the herd immunity threshold rises, but the faster spread also means that the threshold is reached more quickly. That, of course, can lead to a huge portion of the population getting ill at once, which would overwhelm hospitals. Unless the death rate is extremely low, that would be a devastating mix. A disease that doesn’t spread as readily will stick around for longer, but it helps maintain a flatter curve.
If you shortened the immunity duration, you may have also seen that the blue bar showing how much of the population is susceptible rose again even after the herd immunity threshold had been crossed. That’s because if immunity fades while the disease is still active, people who were previously immune once again become at risk for infection. Herd immunity only truly works while the recovered population has immunity to the disease.
For COVID-19, of course, we can’t change these variables, and we still haven’t nailed down their exact values, anyway. What we do know so far paints a stark picture: This disease is too deadly, too contagious and too new to depend on post-infection immunity (as opposed to immunity via vaccination) as a solution. Naturally acquired herd immunity is not the answer.
. . .
So let’s go back to that 70 percent herd immunity threshold. If the fatality rate is around 0.5 percent and 70 percent of Americans have to get sick before their immunity starts protecting others, that means more than 1.1 million people would die. In New York, even having 21 percent of the population exposed, if that serological survey is accurate, has overrun hospitals and led to the death of one in every 400 New Yorkers, while the vast majority of the population remains susceptible.
“That’s the cost of getting to 20 percent,” said Emma Hodcroft, a postdoctoral epidemiology researcher at the University of Basel in Switzerland. “It really illustrates the price you’re going to pay if you want to get up to the 60 percent or 70 percent that you’ll need for herd immunity, and I hope it really illustrates why that just isn’t a feasible plan.”
Heretic
Posts : 3520
Subject: Re: COVID-19 5/16/2020, 12:02 pm
To better visualize observed data, we also continually update a curve-fitting exercise to summarize COVID-19's observed trajectory. Particularly with irregular data, curve fitting can improve data visualization. As shown, IHME's mortality curves have matched the data fairly well. pic.twitter.com/NtJcOdA98R
Hello, Peter Ludlow here, CEO of InGen, the company behind the wildly successful dinosaur-themed amusement park, Jurassic Park. As you’re all aware, after an unprecedented storm hit the park, we lost power and the velociraptors escaped their enclosure and killed hundreds of park visitors, prompting a two-month shutdown of the park. Well, I’m pleased to announce that, even though the velociraptors are still on the loose, we will be opening Jurassic Park back up to the public!
Now, I understand why some people might be skeptical about reopening an amusement park when there are still blindingly fast, 180-pound predators roaming around. But the fact of the matter is, velociraptors are intelligent, shifty creatures that are not going to be contained any time soon, so we might as well just start getting used to them killing a few people every now and then. Some might argue that we should follow the example of other parks that have successfully dealt with velociraptor escapes. But here at Jurassic Park, we’ve never been ones to listen to the recommendations of scientists, or safety experts, or bioethicists, so why would we start now?
As some of you know, Dr. Ian Malcolm, our lead safety consultant, had recommended that we wait until the velociraptors have been located and contained before reopening the park, so he wasn’t thrilled when we told him the news. I believe his exact words were “you were so preoccupied with whether you could reopen the park, you didn’t stop to think whether you should.” Talk about a guy on a high horse.
That said, you’ll be pleased to know that, rather than double down on our containment efforts, we’ve decided to dissolve the velociraptor containment task force altogether, and focus instead on how we can get people back into the park as quickly as possible. So rather than concentrating on so-called life-saving measures like “staying in designated safe areas” or “masking your scent,” we’ll be focusing on the details that will get our customers really excited, like a wider selection of fun hats, a pterodactyl-shaped gondola ride to the top of the island, and a brand new Gordon Ramsay designed menu at the Cretaceous Cafe.
In addition to satisfying our customers, the decision to reopen the park is also about allowing the furloughed employees of Jurassic Park to get back to the work they love. Could we have continued to pay their salaries for several months until we got the velociraptor situation under control? Definitely. We’re the wealthiest nature preserve on the planet after all. And will some of the employees returning to work have their limbs torn off and tossed into the air like a juggler tossing bowling pins? Undoubtedly. But we’re confident that with a few safety precautions put in place, we’ll be able to keep the level of workplace injuries and deaths just below levels that would elicit widespread public outrage. And keeping things just below widespread public outrage levels is our gold standard for all of the decisions we make here at Jurassic Park.
And speaking of injuries, I want to take a moment to thank our Jurassic Park EMTs. They’re the real heroes here, am I right? In the process of responding to velociraptor attacks, many of our EMTs get mauled and dismembered by velociraptors themselves. That’s why, as a sign of appreciation, we will be repainting the Jurassic Park ambulance with the words “Hero Mobile” in big bubble letters. We think this is a far more meaningful token of gratitude than the salary increase they requested.
I know many of you out there are going to be hesitant to return to Jurassic Park knowing there are still velociraptors roaming the preserve, but rest assured things will return to normal sooner rather than later. The life expectancy of a velociraptor is only 15-20 years, so we’re confident that these attacks will eventually run their course.
In the meantime, will more visitors die? Yes. Will more Jurassic Park staff die? Yes. But know that their sacrifice will not be forgotten — we plan to erect a small plaque dedicated to all of the velociraptor attack victims in the far back corner of the gift shop next to the T-shirts that say I SURVIVED A VISIT TO JURASSIC PARK AND ALL I GOT WAS THIS LOUSY T-SHIRT. It’s the least we could do.
So pack your suitcases, and get ready to be reacquainted with the newly reopened, and only slightly more dangerous, Jurassic Park! And remember, life finds a way… unless you’re one of the unlucky ones that gets attacked by a velociraptor, then you’re probably screwed.
Finally, a theme park that doesn’t cave to liberal scare tactics.
Clearly Chicago, although victim to coronavirus like all of us, was far less stricken than NYC. It’s no surprise that New York state put serious lockdown measures in place — the toughest in the nation — while Illinois implemented social distancing but with far less severity (it has been ranked 23rd out of 50 states on the scale of lockdown strictness). One wonders, how are they doing?
Both strategies worked; both slowed the rapidly rising epidemic. But NYC’s stricter approach worked better. A lot better.
. . .
Chicago has managed to slow the rise of the epidemic, but not stop it. The death rate is still rising, albeit slowly, but shows signs of accelerating recently. Already well over 10 deaths/day/million population, it’s a severe strain on the health care system. Loosening even more their lockdown measures, will accelerate the curve, bending it upward and raising the death rate even further. It seems to me, a crisis will be unavoidable.
NYC, however, has shown us how to recover after being blasted by this epidemic. Not only has the rate of new deaths dropped as rapidly as could realistically be expected, NYC has shown the fortitude and courage to stick with their winning strategy. If they can hold the course, the death rate may soon fall below 10 deaths/day/million population, not what anyone would call “good” but for NYC, some relief to the nation’s most overworked health care system.
. . .
My conclusions: 1. Social distancing works, but when done poorly the death rate can still rise, albeit more slowly. 2. Lockdown works better, much better, and can actually drive the death rate down. 3. When the rate keeps rising, it will exceed tolerance levels — sooner or later, probably sooner.
Clearly the Swedes, although victim to coronavirus like all of us, were far less stricken than the Swiss. It’s no surprise that Switzerland put serious lockdown measures in place, while the Swedes implemented social distancing but with far less severity than the Swiss. One wonders, how are they doing?
Both countries’ strategies worked; they both put a halt to the rapidly rising epidemic. But Switzerland’s stricter approach worked better. A lot better.
. . .
Sweden has managed to hold the epidemic at a steady level, a little over 50 new cases per day per million population. That’s enough to strain the health care system, but not break it. However, they remain on “the brink” at such levels, which leads me to think that recent measures in Sweden to loosen yet more, are ill advised. What they’re doing now only holds the outbreak at bay; loosening will let it escape.
Switzerland, however, have shown the world how to recover after being hard hit by this epidemic. Not only has the rate of new cases dropped as rapidly as could realistically be expected, the Swiss have shown the fortitude and courage to stick with their winning strategy, driving infection rates well below the 50 cases/day/million population level in Sweden. Roles are reversed; with only 5 cases/day/million population, now it’s Switzerland getting new cases at only 1/10th the rate of Sweden.
My conclusions: 1. Social distancing works. 2. Lockdown works better, much better. 3. Doing just enough to prevent crisis levels means the new case load remains at a sustained level which is very costly in human lives, and will not subside.
happy jack
Posts : 6988
Subject: Re: COVID-19 5/17/2020, 1:47 pm
happy jack wrote:
Heretic wrote:
If I'm wrong, then by all means, let's have an honest conversation about what's currently happening and how bad it will be if that muppet and his protesters get their way and reopen long before the science says its safe. But I highly doubt you're willing or capable.
I have absolutely no idea how bad it will be should things start to open up, and neither do you. But speaking only for myself and my family, these so-called lockdowns have had virtually no effect on our lives. I have not had more than one consecutive day off from work since this whole thing began, and the rest of the family has also been working steadily. Though we take all precautions seriously, we have been getting our gas, groceries, and other necessities at will, and we have not been cowering beneath the blankets waiting for the Reaper to knock on the door. We are, unlike Hollywood stars, MSNBC reporters, and diversity counselors, essential personnel.
Reminder: Adolf Hitler Also Wanted To Go Outside And Do Things
May 15th, 2020
U.S.—Many Americans are growing tired of the lockdown and want to once again leave their homes and go do things. As many historians note, this is similar to the attitude of genocidal maniac Adolf Hitler. “If there is one thing Hitler was known for,” says historian Eric Reese, “it’s that he would leave his house and do things -- such as go to a restaurant, go to the store, or give a speech to a large crowd. It’s interesting -- and maybe scary -- that so many Americans want to do some of those same things.” There are many photos of Hitler outside, providing ironclad proof that Hitler also liked to leave his house. It’s not certain, though, what the connection is between hateful bigotry and not wanting to be trapped in one’s own home. “We can’t know what’s motivating these people who want to get out of their houses,” said California Governor Gavin Newsom, “but is genocide next? History says yes.” In Hitler’s final days, though, he did dutifully shelter in place -- living in a bunker -- despite wanting to go outside, so historians note that people who actually do go outside are in fact “worse than Hitler.”
President Donald Trump said Monday that he is taking a malaria drug to protect against the new coronavirus, despite warnings from his own government that it should only be administered for COVID-19 in a hospital or research setting due to potentially fatal side effects.
Trump told reporters he has been taking the drug, hydroxychloroquine, and a zinc supplement daily “for about a week and a half now.” Trump spent weeks pushing the drug as a potential cure or prophylaxis for COVID-19 against the cautionary advice of many of his administration’s top medical professionals. The drug has the potential to cause significant side effects in some patients and has not been shown to combat the new coronavirus.
Trump said his doctor did not recommend the drug to him, but he requested it from the White House physician.
“I started taking it, because I think it’s good,” Trump said. “I’ve heard a lot of good stories.”
The Food and Drug Administration warned health professionals last month that the drug should not be used to treat COVID-19 outside of hospital or research settings, due to sometimes fatal side effects. Regulators issued the alert for the drug, which can also be used to treat lupus and arthritis, after receiving reports of heart rhythm problems, including deaths, from poison control centers and other health providers.
Trump dismissed reports of side effects, saying, “All I can tell you is, so far I seem to be OK.”
. . .
Several prominent doctors said they worried that people would infer from Trump’s example that the drug works or is safe.
“There is no evidence that hydroxychloroquine is effective for the treatment or the prevention of COVID-19,” said Dr. Patrice Harris, president of the American Medical Association. “The results to date are not promising.”
People should not infer from Trump’s example “that it’s an approved approach or proven,” because it’s not, said Dr. David Aronoff, infectious diseases chief at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville.
President Donald Trump said Monday that he is taking a malaria drug to protect against the new coronavirus, despite warnings from his own government that it should only be administered for COVID-19 in a hospital or research setting due to potentially fatal side effects.
Trump told reporters he has been taking the drug, hydroxychloroquine, and a zinc supplement daily “for about a week and a half now.” Trump spent weeks pushing the drug as a potential cure or prophylaxis for COVID-19 against the cautionary advice of many of his administration’s top medical professionals. The drug has the potential to cause significant side effects in some patients and has not been shown to combat the new coronavirus.
Trump said his doctor did not recommend the drug to him, but he requested it from the White House physician.
“I started taking it, because I think it’s good,” Trump said. “I’ve heard a lot of good stories.”
The Food and Drug Administration warned health professionals last month that the drug should not be used to treat COVID-19 outside of hospital or research settings, due to sometimes fatal side effects. Regulators issued the alert for the drug, which can also be used to treat lupus and arthritis, after receiving reports of heart rhythm problems, including deaths, from poison control centers and other health providers.
Trump dismissed reports of side effects, saying, “All I can tell you is, so far I seem to be OK.”
. . .
Several prominent doctors said they worried that people would infer from Trump’s example that the drug works or is safe.
“There is no evidence that hydroxychloroquine is effective for the treatment or the prevention of COVID-19,” said Dr. Patrice Harris, president of the American Medical Association. “The results to date are not promising.”
People should not infer from Trump’s example “that it’s an approved approach or proven,” because it’s not, said Dr. David Aronoff, infectious diseases chief at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville.
President Donald Trump said Monday that he is taking a malaria drug to protect against the new coronavirus, despite warnings from his own government that it should only be administered for COVID-19 in a hospital or research setting due to potentially fatal side effects.
Trump told reporters he has been taking the drug, hydroxychloroquine, and a zinc supplement daily “for about a week and a half now.” Trump spent weeks pushing the drug as a potential cure or prophylaxis for COVID-19 against the cautionary advice of many of his administration’s top medical professionals. The drug has the potential to cause significant side effects in some patients and has not been shown to combat the new coronavirus.
Trump said his doctor did not recommend the drug to him, but he requested it from the White House physician.
“I started taking it, because I think it’s good,” Trump said. “I’ve heard a lot of good stories.”
The Food and Drug Administration warned health professionals last month that the drug should not be used to treat COVID-19 outside of hospital or research settings, due to sometimes fatal side effects. Regulators issued the alert for the drug, which can also be used to treat lupus and arthritis, after receiving reports of heart rhythm problems, including deaths, from poison control centers and other health providers.
Trump dismissed reports of side effects, saying, “All I can tell you is, so far I seem to be OK.”
. . .
Several prominent doctors said they worried that people would infer from Trump’s example that the drug works or is safe.
“There is no evidence that hydroxychloroquine is effective for the treatment or the prevention of COVID-19,” said Dr. Patrice Harris, president of the American Medical Association. “The results to date are not promising.”
People should not infer from Trump’s example “that it’s an approved approach or proven,” because it’s not, said Dr. David Aronoff, infectious diseases chief at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville.
COVID-19 deaths broken down by age, as of May 13th, 2020
Under 1 year – 4 1 – 4 years – 2 5 – 14 years – 6 15 – 24 years – 59 25 – 34 years – 388 35 – 44 years – 973 45 – 54 years – 2772
Total deaths - 54 and younger - 4204
55 – 64 years – 6725 65 – 74 years – 11524 75 – 84 years – 14930 85 years and over – 17478
Total deaths - 55 and older - 50657
Total deaths all age groups - 54861
So, 92% of the deaths involve those 55 and over, while 8% of the deaths are comprised of those under 55 who, incidentally make up the bulk of the work force (and there is no accounting for how many of those cases were exacerbated by underlying health issues, regardless of age.) So rather than suggesting that those over 55 do not unnecessarily go out in public, we are being told that everyone must be locked in, regardless of the risk to them.
Scorpion
Posts : 2141
Subject: Re: COVID-19 5/20/2020, 6:18 am
I think that the more pertinent way of looking into these numbers is by looking at the number and ratio of Covid-19 deaths to the total number of deaths overall and for each age group.
Thus, we have total Covid-19 deaths 54861/835607 = 6.5 % of all deaths were Covid-19 deaths.
1 to 14 years - 12/6113 = <1% 15 – 24 years – 59/7452 = < 1%
25 – 34 years – 388/15975 = 2.4%
35 – 44 years – 973/22887 = 4.2%
******************************** 45 – 54 years – 2772/44291 = 6.2% 55 – 64 years – 6725/106004 = 6.3% 65 – 74 years – 11524/164217 = 7.0% 75 – 84 years – 14930/206121 = 7.2% 85 years and over – 17478/262347 = 6.6%
The 6.2 % added Covid-19 caused death rate for years 45-54 isn't much different from 55-64 (6.3%). Logically, the dividing line should be 45, not 55. Is the bulk of the workforce aged under 45? No... I seriously doubt that's the case.
This data is from the period ending May 9... and the death count is now 90,679... and still climbing with no end in sight.
President Donald Trump announced Wednesday his intention to block federal funding to Michigan if election officials there do not retreat from measures meant to facilitate mail-in voting.
The threat from the White House comes as Michigan, a state crucial to Trump’s reelection chances later this year, combats the fallout from a particularly severe coronavirus outbreak.
“Breaking: Michigan sends absentee ballots to 7.7 million people ahead of Primaries and the General Election,” Trump tweeted. “This was done illegally and without authorization by a rogue Secretary of State. I will ask to hold up funding to Michigan if they want to go down this Voter Fraud path!”
. . .
Those applications would allow Michiganders to participate in the state’s August primary and November’s general election without fear of contracting the highly infectious disease which has endangered polling places and election workers across the country.
Responding to the president, the secretary tweeted that “I also have a name, it’s Jocelyn Benson,” and noted that her office “sent applications, not ballots” to Michigan voters. “Just like my GOP colleagues in Iowa, Georgia, Nebraska and West Virginia,” Benson, a Democrat, added.
. . .
The president similarly threatened Nevada later Wednesday morning, tweeting: “State of Nevada ‘thinks’ that they can send out illegal vote by mail ballots, creating a great Voter Fraud scenario for the State and the U.S. They can’t! If they do, ‘I think’ I can hold up funds to the State. Sorry, but you must not cheat in elections.”
Nevada Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske, a Republican, previously announced in March that the state’s June 9 primary would be conducted entirely by mail. Earlier this month, county election officials began sending absentee ballots to all active registered voters.
In the early weeks of the US coronavirus outbreak, staff members in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had tracked a growing number of transmissions in Europe and elsewhere, and proposed a global advisory that would alert flyers to the dangers of air travel.
But about a week passed before the alert was issued publicly -- crucial time lost when about 66,000 European travelers were streaming into American airports every day.
The delay, detailed in documents obtained by CNN, is the latest example to emerge of a growing sense of disconnect between the CDC and the White House.
In interviews with CNN, CDC officials say their agency's efforts to mount a coordinated response to the Covid-19 pandemic have been hamstrung by a White House whose decisions are driven by politics rather than science.
The result has worsened the effects of the crisis, sources inside the CDC say, relegating the 73-year-old agency that has traditionally led the nation's response to infectious disease to a supporting role.
We wouldn't need such shelter in place rules had there had been an adequate response at the beginning.
Pence Isn't Taking Hydroxychloroquine But Wouldn’t ‘Begrudge’ Anyone Who Did
Vice President Mike Pence said Tuesday he is not taking doses of hydroxychloroquine to prevent COVID-19, a day after President Donald Trump made the shocking announcement that he had started using the anti-malaria drug a “couple of weeks ago.” “I’m not. But I would never begrudge any American taking the advice of their physician,” Pence told Fox News’ Kristin Fisher. “My physician has not recommended that, but I wouldn’t hesitate to take the counsel of my doctor. Any American should do likewise.”
……...
…. and how it will inevitably be spun:
Pence Has The Blood Of All Americans On His Hands!!!!
Michigan State Police hand out $500 disorderly conduct citations at Operation Haircut in Lansing
LANSING, Mich. (FOX 2) - Hundreds of people protested Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer's closure of non-essential businesses including barbers and hair salons during Operation Haircut on Wednesday. Some even got haircuts on the front lawn of the capitol and Michigan State Police were handing out $500 disorderly conduct tickets.
.........
Michigan State Police @MichStatePolice
Demonstrators have arrived at the Capitol for “Operation Haircut.” All individuals engaging in haircuts are being educated on the law. Those who do not comply will be cited for disorderly conduct. All citations will be forwarded to the AG’s Office for review.
Ever think that someone would actually have to say those words? It's a shame that otherwise competent police officers are being forced to obey orders given to them by blithering fucking idiots. Welcome to America 2020.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is conflating the results of two different types of coronavirus tests, distorting several important metrics and providing the country with an inaccurate picture of the state of the pandemic. We’ve learned that the CDC is making, at best, a debilitating mistake: combining test results that diagnose current coronavirus infections with test results that measure whether someone has ever had the virus. The upshot is that the government’s disease-fighting agency is overstating the country’s ability to test people who are sick with COVID-19. The agency confirmed to The Atlantic on Wednesday that it is mixing the results of viral and antibody tests, even though the two tests reveal different information and are used for different reasons.
This is not merely a technical error. States have set quantitative guidelines for reopening their economies based on these flawed data points.
Several states—including Pennsylvania, the site of one of the country’s largest outbreaks, as well as Texas, Georgia, and Vermont—are blending the data in the same way. Virginia likewise mixed viral and antibody test results until last week, but it reversed course and the governor apologized for the practice after it was covered by the Richmond Times-Dispatch and The Atlantic. Maine similarly separated its data on Wednesday; Vermont authorities claimed they didn’t even know they were doing this.
The widespread use of the practice means that it remains difficult to know exactly how much the country’s ability to test people who are actively sick with COVID-19 has improved.
“You’ve got to be kidding me,” Ashish Jha, the K. T. Li Professor of Global Health at Harvard and the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, told us when we described what the CDC was doing. “How could the CDC make that mistake? This is a mess.”
Viral tests, taken by nose swab or saliva sample, look for direct evidence of a coronavirus infection. They are considered the gold standard for diagnosing someone with COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus: State governments consider a positive viral test to be the only way to confirm a case of COVID-19. Antibody tests, by contrast, use blood samples to look for biological signals that a person has been exposed to the virus in the past.
A negative test result means something different for each test. If somebody tests negative on a viral test, a doctor can be relatively confident that they are not sick right now; if somebody tests negative on an antibody test, they have probably never been infected with or exposed to the coronavirus. (Or they may have been given a false result—antibody tests are notoriously less accurate on an individual level than viral tests.) The problem is that the CDC is clumping negative results from both tests together in its public reporting.
Mixing the two tests makes it much harder to understand the meaning of positive tests, and it clouds important information about the U.S. response to the pandemic, Jha said. “The viral testing is to understand how many people are getting infected, while antibody testing is like looking in the rearview mirror. The two tests are totally different signals,” he told us. By combining the two types of results, the CDC has made them both “uninterpretable,” he said.
We are so fucked. This rush to reopen with little to no safeguards in place is going to kill a lot more people.
If the United States had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers.
And if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83 percent — would have been avoided, the researchers estimated.
Under that scenario, about 54,000 fewer people would have died by early May.
The enormous cost of waiting to take action reflects the unforgiving dynamics of the outbreak that swept through American cities in early March. Even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, the researchers found.
“It’s a big, big difference. That small moment in time, catching it in that growth phase, is incredibly critical in reducing the number of deaths,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia and the leader of the research team.
Large gatherings pose a risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
What is added by this report?
Among 92 attendees at a rural Arkansas church during March 6–11, 35 (38%) developed laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, and three persons died. Highest attack rates were in persons aged 19–64 years (59%) and ≥65 years (50%). An additional 26 cases linked to the church occurred in the community, including one death.
What are the implications for public health practice?
Faith-based organizations should work with local health officials to determine how to implement the U.S. Government guidelines for modifying activities during the COVID-19 pandemic to prevent transmission of the virus to their members and their communities.
If the United States had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers.
And if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83 percent — would have been avoided, the researchers estimated.
Under that scenario, about 54,000 fewer people would have died by early May.
The enormous cost of waiting to take action reflects the unforgiving dynamics of the outbreak that swept through American cities in early March. Even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, the researchers found.
“It’s a big, big difference. That small moment in time, catching it in that growth phase, is incredibly critical in reducing the number of deaths,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia and the leader of the research team.
#MAGA #prolife #ChineseHoax
The longer you and your fellow travelers refuse to have social contact with others, the better off we all are.
Pence, unmasked in photo op, eats lunch at Florida burger joint to highlight reopening
He was highlighting the state allowing restaurants to 50% reopen.
Jordyn Phelps May 20, 2020, 2:53 PM
Vice President Mike Pence did something Wednesday that most Americans haven’t done in many weeks amid the coronavirus pandemic: He sat down for lunch at a burger joint. The vice president held a photo op at Beth’s Burger Bar in Florida along with GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis to highlight efforts to allow restaurants in the state to begin reopening for limited, in-person service. Pence ordered a cheeseburger. "Load it up," Pence told owner Beth Steele when she asked what toppings he’d like on his burger. Neither the vice president, nor Steele, nor DeSantis, or many others nearby, wore masks.
………
Gotta confess - the absolute best Florida cheeseburger I've ever had was the one I had to suck through an N95 micro-filtration mask. Mmmmm!!!! Yes, we must trust the mainstream media, regardless.
Over 4,300 Coronavirus Patients Sent To New York Nursing Homes: AP
The COVID-19 patients were discharged from hospitals to already vulnerable nursing homes under the governor’s directive, which has since been scrapped.
Bernard Condon, Jennifer Peltz and Jim Mustian
NEW YORK (AP) — More than 4,300 recovering coronavirus patients were sent to New York’s already vulnerable nursing homes under a controversial state directive that was ultimately scrapped amid criticisms it was accelerating the nation’s deadliest outbreaks, according to a count by The Associated Press. AP compiled its own tally to find out how many COVID-19 patients were discharged from hospitals to nursing homes under the March 25 directive after New York’s Health Department declined to release its internal survey conducted two weeks ago. It says it is still verifying data that was incomplete. Whatever the full number, nursing home administrators, residents’ advocates and relatives say it has added up to a big and indefensible problem for facilities that even Gov. Andrew Cuomo — the main proponent of the policy — called “the optimum feeding ground for this virus.”
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Heretic
Posts : 3520
Subject: Re: COVID-19 5/22/2020, 11:16 am
Scorpion wrote:
The 6.2 % added Covid-19 caused death rate for years 45-54 isn't much different from 55-64 (6.3%). Logically, the dividing line should be 45, not 55. Is the bulk of the workforce aged under 45? No... I seriously doubt that's the case.
This data is from the period ending May 9... and the death count is now 90,679... and still climbing with no end in sight.
You can tell the concern is disingenuous since it's focusing on the death toll and not on what the virus actually does. The lack of taste and smell means its neurological, for fuck's sake.
Somewhere between 5 and 80 percent of people who test positive for Covid-19 may be asymptomatic, or only develop symptoms days or even weeks after their test, and many of these people will have a mild form of the illness with no lasting symptoms. But Nichols is one of many Covid-19 patients who are finding their recovery takes far longer than the two weeks the World Health Organization says people with mild cases can expect. (The WHO says those with severe or critical cases can expect three to six weeks of recovery.)
Because Covid-19 is a new disease, there are no studies about its long-term trajectory for those with more severe symptoms; even the earliest patients to recover in China were only infected a few months ago. But doctors say the novel coronavirus can attach to human cells in many parts of the body and penetrate many major organs, including the heart, kidneys, brain, and even blood vessels.
“The difficulty is sorting out long-term consequences,” says Joseph Brennan, a cardiologist at the Yale School of Medicine. While some patients may fully recover, he and other experts worry others will suffer long-term damage, including lung scarring, heart damage, and neurological and mental health effects.
The UK National Health Service assumes that of Covid-19 patients who have required hospitalization, 45 percent will need ongoing medical care, 4 percent will require inpatient rehabilitation, and 1 percent will permanently require acute care. Other preliminary evidence, as well as historical research on other coronaviruses like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), suggests that for some people, a full recovery might still be years off. For others, there may be no returning to normal.
There’s a lot we still don’t know, but here are a few of the most notable potential long-term impacts that are already showing up in some Covid-19 patients.
It goes on to the list: lung scarring, stroke, embolisms, and blood clotting, heart damage, neurocognitive and mental health impacts, childhood inflammation.
But this is where conservatives put us: Arguing that that... is bad.
The MAGA Hats are going to kill and hurt a lot of fucking people.
Heretic
Posts : 3520
Subject: Re: COVID-19 5/22/2020, 11:33 am
Up until the Trump administration, our military and national security apparatus considered climate change to be our biggest threat since it was a "threat multiplier." It'll make any situation we face, any problem, worse.
Unprecedented flooding was ongoing Wednesday morning in Midland County, Mich., after a pair of dams collapsed following record rainfall. Thousands of residents have been told to evacuate as floodwaters gush into the communities along the Tittabawassee River, inundating homes and businesses and prompting an emergency declaration from Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). The flooding is threatening a major Dow Chemical plant that lies along the river.
The Edenville Dam was breached Tuesday evening after Midland received 4.7 inches of rain in a 48-hour period, following days of heavy rain across the state. The dam sits about 18 miles upstream of Midland, a city of more than 40,000.
That collapse sent floodwaters gushing into Sanford Lake, where a dam has powered the Boyce Hydroelectric Plant. The Sanford Dam succumbed shortly thereafter, the twin reservoirs of water left with no place to drain but into the city of Midland. A flash flood emergency is in effect for downstream areas of Sanford.
In areas exposed to coastal flooding and extreme rains, like Houston, a series of “500 year” storms is reducing value in large areas of real estate. Same for places like California and the Mountain west due to increased fire.
Midwesterners who may have considered themselves immune from such high profile events might have been shaken the other day by the consecutive failure of two dams in Midland County, MI, which will have enormous knock-on effects in local real estate markets, for “lake front” properties that now have no lake, and downstream properties that have now had 2 damaging floods in just 4 years.
The value lost in these homes can’t be recovered just by rebuilding and cleanup.
In the case of the lakes, it’s finding the capital to rebuild dams, which doesn’t sound like an easy, quick slam dunk to me.
For the downstream houses, the value is gone and will never return.
Massive loss of tax evaluation for villages, city, and county.
So now we have ten thousand evacuees during a national pandemic that lacks adequate contact tracing and testing on a good day. A situation that will be made even worse if anything happens to that chemical plant.
The most fascinating part about this pandemic is watching happy and conservatives like him rally around these ill advised reopenings, reopenings not backed by either economists or scientists, while at the same time ignoring actual economic warnings from economists or scientists when related to climate change.
Remember, the situation is so dire that the insurance industry is warning that large parts of the world will be virtually uninsurable due to the increased frequency of 500/100 yr storms and the subsequent flooding. There's report after report, from Wall Street, JP Morgan, insurance companies, banks, credit agencies, etc... yet Republicans can still barely acknowledge it even exists. Happy's even admitted he just doesn't care.
But now during COVID...? "The economy!!" Please. There's no honest concern for life or the economy. There never has been. Kill a hundred thousand Americans with an avoidable plague, reopen without any safeguards in place and kill more, and burn the future of the planet. There's no pile of dead Americans too big and no economy too devastated for conservatives so long as it "owns the libs."
Heretic
Posts : 3520
Subject: Re: COVID-19 5/22/2020, 12:04 pm
There's even less data suggesting preventative hydroxychloroquine use than there is treatment. Did that dumb shit test positive? Is that why he's taking it?
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There's no honest concern for life or the economy. There never has been. Kill a hundred thousand Americans with an avoidable plague, reopen without any safeguards in place and kill more, and burn the future of the planet. There's no pile of dead Americans too big and no economy too devastated for conservatives so long as it "owns the libs."