county chair race update

despite everything rudy and company have done to slant the playing field in thier favor...it appears mcdermott could win on a first ballot saturday. rumors of last minute deal making between rudy and gvt abound...but really nobody in the mcdermott camp cares what they decide to do as Hammond Mayor is now shooting for a pure majority of the votes in attendence.

so what if either rudy or gvt pull out? that likely just means less opposition to mcdermott would show up at the polls possibly giving him an even larger majority of the votes in attendance....however.....

those who remember the last time a lake county dem election was held will remember the controversy over the low turnout and how that resulted in a king (rudy) being placed on the throghn by the occupying kings (dem state leaders). nobody in the mcdermott camp wants to see a repeat of that fiasco, so now efforts are moving towards ensuring a large turnout. please. if you are a committeeman or vice committeeman...make sure, no matter what may occur in the next few days, you vote saturday morning (preferrably for mcdermott but even if not for him, at least keep the decision in local hands and still show up to vote for your chosen candidate).

for no matter whom you support in this race. the only thing worse than a candidate you may not like winning...... is the winner being someone you dont like being appointed by an outsider.

now for those wondering...here are my updated odds (entertainment purposes only).

(strict plurality of 50%+1
mcdermott even money
rudy 7-1 against
gvt 999-1 against
no quoram 2-1 against.
odds of mcdermott getting 442 votes on his own (simple majority of the 891 eligible voters) 5-1 against.
anyone else getting a majority 9999-1 against.
vote being disallowed for lack of quorum 7-1 against.

over under total votes

mcdermott 364
clay 261
gvt 34
total votes cast 550

proposition bets (again, just for entertainment)

Mcdermott getting between 325-400 votes 2-1 against
mcdermott getting 300-350 2-1 against
clay getting 200-275 2-1 against
clay getting 150-200 2-1 against
clay getting more than 275 6-1 against
gvt getting 25-50 even money
gvt getting more than 50 4-1 against

rudy clay showing up without a driver 10-1 against
clay in gold suit 1/9 against
mcdermott showing up in black suit even money
mcdermott blue suit even money
mcdermott other suit 99-1 against
gvt white suit even money
gvt other suit 24-1 against

rudy clay saying he loves democracy 5-1 against
rudy clay leaving before vote count even money
rudy clay trying to hold down turnout 2-1 against

rudy withdrawal 2-1 against
gvt withdrawal even money
mcdermott withdrawal 9999-1 against

obama to show up in support of rudy 1,000,000,000,000-1
hillary to show up for mcdermott 1,000,000,000-1
anyone noteworthy to show up for gvt 1/9

Oracle, I was told recently by a Munster Dem that they have done away with the quorum rule and that a simple majority of all votes cast will decide the winner.

At this pont, people actually don't really have an interest in this. Most are scrambling to pay bills.

The political scene will just take the usual course and nothing can change anymore at this point where it will make a different in the direction our nation is taking, because people are too pre-occuppied with more important thingsa.

Politics never change; only the players.

They used to change us, but, att this point, it's the least on our minds. Because it is too late.

People are fending for themselves, and actually don't have time to give a hoot for politics. We can't rely on politicians to save us. We can rely on them to save themselves.

board monkey wrote:

Oracle, I was told recently by a Munster Dem that they have done away with the quorum rule and that a simple majority of all votes cast will decide the winner.

its my understanding 'that it depends'. and depends on what is a damn good question, but its been implied to me that it would then be up to the state party to determine if the vote were valid or not. a sort of 'we'll cross that bridge when we get to it' scenerio.

that being the apparant case. id just assume get a kick ass turnout and win with a straight out majority rather than leave it to others to validate the vote.

ur. i believe you are correct with the general public. however amongst politicoes and committeepersons interest to me seems surprisingly high.

Van Til is out.
Schueb is supporting McDermott.
The fat lady is singing..

rumors abound that rudy is offering to shave his hair and mutton chops in exchange for votes on saturday.

im told hes even offering his personal hummer and chauffer service to shuttle voters too and from the polls as long as they promise to support him.

mcdermott on the other hand. is just offering too work hard for the party and to treat the committeemen with the respect and dignity that they deserve, whether they support him or not.

http://www.nwitimes.com/articles/2009/03/07/news/lake/doc5cd28e705e3552f98625757200008534.txt

CROWN POINT | The contest for Lake County Democratic Party leadership today will be a rematch between two mayors whose sparring on national television last spring briefly held the nation spellbound.

Ten months ago, Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr. went on CNN on primary election night to assail Gary Mayor Rudy Clay's management of the vote counting between presidential contenders Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Today, McDermott will be on the attack again. The venue will be smaller -- the Lake County Government Complex auditorium in Crown Point. The audience will be hundreds of Democratic committeemen and vice committeemen, and the prize will be party boss for four years.

It became a two-man race Thursday after Lake County Surveyor George Van Til unexpectedly dropped out of the race. Clay and McDermott now are seeking to gain Van Til's supporters.

Van Til is refusing to publicly endorse Clay or McDermott.

Clay and McDermott offer a stark contrast.

Clay, 73, is one of the party's veteran officials, having spent half his life serving as mayor, state senator, county councilman or county commissioner.


(73 years old, time to retire, Porkchops. What exactly did ole'Rudy do during this time for the good of the what'ever he served half his lifetime for, but to serve for himself! - I can't stand that brainless, self-serving idiot. Like Roland Burris, it's about greed.)



The Democratic State Central Committee named Clay party chairman in 2005 after the county's committeemen and vice committeemen were so split they couldn't muster a majority.

McDermott, 40, is one of the youngest and newest party stalwarts. He is the son of former Hammond GOP Mayor Thomas McDermott Sr.

The late Stephen R. Stiglich, then-Democratic county chairman, gave McDermott Jr. dispensation to switch parties seven years ago to be eligible to run for Hammond mayor.

McDermott defeated then-Republican Hammond Mayor Duane Dedelow in 2003 and narrowly won re-election in 2007.

just pointing out that the odds i posted last week turned out to be dead on.

gvt did pull out.

the favorite on the board, mcdermott did win handily...with a total vote within the prop bet probable voting window (as did clay in defeat)

mcdermott did hit the over...but only by 41 votes. same with clay...but only by 19 votes.

so hey, region.....when it comes to political battles, dont ever doubt your oracle again when it comes to predicting the outcome!