Biden needs to stay out of it

Open Mouth Insert Foot

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Biden said the Iranian government has suppressed crowds and limited free speech by shutting down social networking sites such as Facebook, which he said raised questions. He also called the strong showing by incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad "unlikely," based on pre-election analysis.

Biden is saying way too much. He needs to let the Iranians work this out.

paul87920 wrote:

Open Mouth Insert Foot

Quote :

Biden said the Iranian government has suppressed crowds and limited free speech by shutting down social networking sites such as Facebook, which he said raised questions. He also called the strong showing by incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad "unlikely," based on pre-election analysis.

Biden is saying way too much. He needs to let the Iranians work this out.

Yeah, well I disagree.



The theocrats in Iraq aren't going to "work anything out." They have already declared that Ahmadinejad is the winner, and there will be no recount. I think it's important for the US to show some solidarity with the Iranians who feel disenfranchised.

I don't see any gaffes this time, so I don't see why you think that Biden's comments are "way too much."

Because historically whenever we involve ourselves in their politics it doesn't seem to end well. The Iranians do not want us involved in their political process, and they don't want us telling them how to run their country or their elections. What's Biden going to accomplish besides pissing off a bunch of Iranians?

and I don't want to come across or sound Anti-Biden. It's not the case. I happen to think Biden is a great vice president. I just admittedly don't understand this move.

Biden talking about the situation is not "getting involved in their political process."
We got "involved" in 1953:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Ajax

Now THAT'S getting involved.

paul87920 wrote:

Biden is saying way too much. He needs to let the Iranians work this out.

Biden is only saying what the international community at large is. There has been a huge crackdown on the internet, etc. as a result of the election. And the results seriously are in question, even with Iran's own election commission calling for a do-over. There's some seriously crazy shit going down. Check out some of the recent posts on Informed Comment for some more.

I'm not so sure the election was completely rigged. There may and probably was some vote fraud which would have increased the plurality,but I'm not sure it would have been enough to change the result. I base my theory on this article and poll... Ahmadinejad Front Runner in Upcoming Presidential Elections;

Artie60438 wrote:

I'm not so sure the election was completely rigged. There may and probably was some vote fraud which would have increased the plurality,but I'm not sure it would have been enough to change the result. I base my theory on this article and poll... Ahmadinejad Front Runner in Upcoming Presidential Elections;

Yeah, well that poll predicted a runoff election, not a huge victory for Ahmadinejad. Winding up with a landslide victory instead of needing a runoff election definitely qualifies as "changing the results."

http://www.terrorfreetomorrow.org/upimagestft/CNN%20Commentary%20Iran%20Poll%200609.pdf

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Though our poll results show President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the lead, it appears that that none of the presidential candidates will pass the 50 percent threshold needed to automatically win; a second-round runoff between the two highest finishers -- as things stand, Ahmadinejad and Mir Hussein Moussavi -- is likely.

Scorpion wrote:

Artie60438 wrote:

I'm not so sure the election was completely rigged. There may and probably was some vote fraud which would have increased the plurality,but I'm not sure it would have been enough to change the result. I base my theory on this article and poll... Ahmadinejad Front Runner in Upcoming Presidential Elections;

Yeah, well that poll predicted a runoff election, not a huge victory for Ahmadinejad. Winding up with a landslide victory instead of needing a runoff election definitely qualifies as "changing the results."

http://www.terrorfreetomorrow.org/upimagestft/CNN%20Commentary%20Iran%20Poll%200609.pdf

Quote :

Though our poll results show President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the lead, it appears that that none of the presidential candidates will pass the 50 percent threshold needed to automatically win; a second-round runoff between the two highest finishers -- as things stand, Ahmadinejad and Mir Hussein Moussavi -- is likely.

Here are the authors of that poll commenting today on the results. This is getting curious and curiouser...

The Iranian People Speak
By Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty
Monday, June 15, 2009

The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.

While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad's principal opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran's provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061401757.html

Artie60438 wrote:

Scorpion wrote:

Artie60438 wrote:

I'm not so sure the election was completely rigged. There may and probably was some vote fraud which would have increased the plurality,but I'm not sure it would have been enough to change the result. I base my theory on this article and poll... Ahmadinejad Front Runner in Upcoming Presidential Elections;

Yeah, well that poll predicted a runoff election, not a huge victory for Ahmadinejad. Winding up with a landslide victory instead of needing a runoff election definitely qualifies as "changing the results."

http://www.terrorfreetomorrow.org/upimagestft/CNN%20Commentary%20Iran%20Poll%200609.pdf

Quote :

Though our poll results show President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the lead, it appears that that none of the presidential candidates will pass the 50 percent threshold needed to automatically win; a second-round runoff between the two highest finishers -- as things stand, Ahmadinejad and Mir Hussein Moussavi -- is likely.

Here are the authors of that poll commenting today on the results. This is getting curious and curiouser...

The Iranian People Speak
By Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty
Monday, June 15, 2009

The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.

While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad's principal opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran's provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061401757.html

These people are a trip. Here is how they characterized the results when the poll was actually taken... from your original link.

Quote :

At the stage of the campaign for President when our poll was taken, 34 percent of Iranians surveyed said they will vote for incumbent President Ahmadinejad. Mr. Ahmadinejad’s closest rival, Mir Hussein Moussavi, was the choice of 14 percent,with 27 percent stating that they still do not know who they will vote for. President Ahmadinejad’s other rivals, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohsen Rezai, were the choice of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.

A close examination of our survey results reveals that the race may actually be closer than a first look at the numbers would indicate.

More than 60 percent of those who state they don’t know who they will vote for in the Presidential elections reflect individuals who favor political reform and change in the current system.

I'm not sure that I have much confidence in this poll. For starters, there are no results at all for 22% of the potential voters. To get to 62%, Ahmadinejad needed to get all of the undecideds, which is highly unlikely. And of course there are 22% who apparently didn't answer at all. I don't think its credible to turn around now and insist that they were predicting a landslide all along.

And of course, this is only one poll, so we have no trend to analyze.

Scorpion wrote:

Artie60438 wrote:

Scorpion wrote:

Artie60438 wrote:

I'm not so sure the election was completely rigged. There may and probably was some vote fraud which would have increased the plurality,but I'm not sure it would have been enough to change the result. I base my theory on this article and poll... Ahmadinejad Front Runner in Upcoming Presidential Elections;

Yeah, well that poll predicted a runoff election, not a huge victory for Ahmadinejad. Winding up with a landslide victory instead of needing a runoff election definitely qualifies as "changing the results."

http://www.terrorfreetomorrow.org/upimagestft/CNN%20Commentary%20Iran%20Poll%200609.pdf

Quote :

Though our poll results show President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the lead, it appears that that none of the presidential candidates will pass the 50 percent threshold needed to automatically win; a second-round runoff between the two highest finishers -- as things stand, Ahmadinejad and Mir Hussein Moussavi -- is likely.

Here are the authors of that poll commenting today on the results. This is getting curious and curiouser...

The Iranian People Speak
By Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty
Monday, June 15, 2009

The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.

While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad's principal opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran's provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061401757.html

These people are a trip. Here is how they characterized the results when the poll was actually taken... from your original link.

Quote :

At the stage of the campaign for President when our poll was taken, 34 percent of Iranians surveyed said they will vote for incumbent President Ahmadinejad. Mr. Ahmadinejad’s closest rival, Mir Hussein Moussavi, was the choice of 14 percent,with 27 percent stating that they still do not know who they will vote for. President Ahmadinejad’s other rivals, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohsen Rezai, were the choice of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.

A close examination of our survey results reveals that the race may actually be closer than a first look at the numbers would indicate.

More than 60 percent of those who state they don’t know who they will vote for in the Presidential elections reflect individuals who favor political reform and change in the current system.

I'm not sure that I have much confidence in this poll. For starters, there are no results at all for 22% of the potential voters. To get to 62%, Ahmadinejad needed to get all of the undecideds, which is highly unlikely. And of course there are 22% who apparently didn't answer at all. I don't think its credible to turn around now and insist that they were predicting a landslide all along.

And of course, this is only one poll, so we have no trend to analyze.

Artie, I agree about the polls. I had heard it was illegal in Iran to conduct ANY type of poll, including exit polls.

Lois,Scorpion,I agree with both of you. Conducting polls in this country are a challenge and that's with everyone cooperating and not having to look over you shoulder at possible government intervention or pressure.
I can only imagine what it must be like in Iran We'll probably never get an honest answer.

Heretic wrote:

paul87920 wrote:

Biden is saying way too much. He needs to let the Iranians work this out.

Biden is only saying what the international community at large is. There has been a huge crackdown on the internet, etc. as a result of the election. And the results seriously are in question, even with Iran's own election commission calling for a do-over. There's some seriously crazy shit going down. Check out some of the recent posts on Informed Comment for some more.

I get what you are saying.

Quote :

The last thing that I want to do is to have the United States be a foil for those forces inside Iran who would love nothing better than to make this an argument about the United States. ~ Barack Obama

For the record I agree with him.

paul87920 wrote:

Quote :

The last thing that I want to do is to have the United States be a foil for those forces inside Iran who would love nothing better than to make this an argument about the United States. ~ Barack Obama

For the record I agree with him.

I also agree. I'm quite pleased with the way that the Obama Administration has handled this situation so far... I wish that I could say the same about the way the Republicans (with some notable exceptions) have been acting.

I read an interesting Op-Ed piece last week on this, which also included the following anecdote....

Mike Pence Undermines the Iranian People

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I'm an Iranian living in Canada. A few hours ago I talked to my brother who is a student at Sharif University, he was at the big rally yesterday and they were only feet away from Karoubi when they marched from the university entrance to Azadi square. He asked what had Obama had said and I started reading the transcript. When I got to "the United States can be a handy political football, or discussions with the United States [can be]" my brother sighed and said thank God this guy gets it.

Our own Dick Lugar being one of those exceptions. Lugar is where he belongs right now in my opinion.

Wow. I hadn't seen this yet. Via a post from a random blog I found on Google reader, FiveThirtyEight, covering this news story:

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Iran's Guardian Council has admitted that the number of votes collected in 50 cities surpass the number of those eligible to cast ballot in those areas.

The council's Spokesman Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, who was speaking on the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Channel 2 on Sunday, made the remarks in response to complaints filed by Mohsen Rezaei -- a defeated candidate in the June 12 Presidential election.

"Statistics provided by Mohsen Rezaei in which he claims more than 100% of those eligible have cast their ballot in 170 cities are not accurate -- the incident has happened in only 50 cities," Kadkhodaei said.

The spokesman, however, said that although the vote tally affected by such an irregularity is over 3 million, "it has yet to be determined whether the amount is decisive in the election results," reported Khabaronline.

For all the complex series of statistics that have been run on Iran's election, it's the simplest that might prove to be the regime's downfall. More people "voted" than were eligible to vote -- in a lot of places. The interior ministry admits to 50 such instances out of the 300+ jurisdictions in which Iran tallied results. That is widespread, prime facie and admitted-to evidence of fraud, and I don't see how the Guardian Council expects people to buy the argument that whatever caused the tub to overflow in those 50 cities was not also tainting the results throughout the rest of the country. The Chatham House report we linked to earlier today found that there were more "votes" than voters in two entire provinces.

The Interior Ministry will presumably next try to argue that these were irregularities owing to the mere overzealousness of the Iranian people. Perhaps, as happens with some regularity in the United States, people who thought they were eligible to vote but weren't nevertheless tried to and weren't screened properly by elections officials. But this explanation doesn't hold water -- voter eligibility is not a tricky matter in Iran. The Statistical Center of Iran reports that, as of the last census, there were some 47.7 million people aged 18 or older in Iran, which is the voting age in that country. By contrast, the widely-cited figure is that there were some 46.2 million eligible voters. Virtually all people aged 18 or older, evidently, are eligible to vote in Iran, which has very few non-citizens (only about 1.6 million according to official estimates).

This leaves only two possibilities: that there was widespread ballot-stuffing or that the results in some or all areas don't reflect any physical count of the ballots but were fabricated whole hog on a spreadsheet.

And now it's clear that the "Clerical Council" has no intention of annulling the results. Wow - Big surprise.

Top Clerical Council in Iran Rejects Plea to Annul Vote

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The extra votes add to a list of complaints leveled against the election by Mr. Moussavi and other challengers inside and outside Iran. Among them:

How did the government manage to count enough of the 40 million paper ballots to be able to announce results within two hours of the polls closing? How is it that Mr. Ahmadinejad’s margin of victory remained constant throughout the ballot count? Why did the government order polls closed at 10 p.m. when they often stay open until midnight for presidential races? Why were some ballot boxes sealed before candidates’ inspectors could validate they were empty? Why were votes counted centrally, by the Interior Ministry, instead of locally, as in the past?

It's going to be real interesting to see what happens next. IMHO, the Iranian government has totally lost its legitimacy, and it's only a matter of time before the Iranian people force changes. Brutal repression may work for a while, but in the end, my bet is on the Iranian people.