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 An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media

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Heretic

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PostSubject: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   5/9/2011, 9:47 am

Don't know why this wasn't done sooner...

Quote :
Op-ed columnists and TV’s talking heads build followings by making bold, confident predictions about politics and the economy. But rarely are their predictions analyzed for accuracy.

Now, a class at Hamilton College led by public policy professor P. Gary Wyckoff has analyzed the predictions of 26 prognosticators between September 2007 and December 2008. Their findings? Anyone can make as accurate a prediction as most of them if just by flipping a coin.

. . .

The students found that only nine of the prognosticators they studied could predict more accurately than a coin flip. Two were significantly less accurate, and the remaining 14 were not statistically any better or worse than a coin flip.

The top prognosticators – led by New York Times columnist Paul Krugman – scored above five points and were labeled “Good,” while those scoring between zero and five were “Bad.” Anyone scoring less than zero (which was possible because prognosticators lost points for inaccurate predictions) were put into “The Ugly” category. Syndicated columnist Cal Thomas came up short and scored the lowest of the 26.

Even when the students eliminated political predictions and looked only at predictions for the economy and social issues, they found that liberals still do better than conservatives at prediction. After Krugman, the most accurate pundits were Maureen Dowd of The New York Times, former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – all Democrats and/or liberals. Also landing in the “Good” category, however, were conservative columnists Kathleen Parker and David Brooks, along with Bush Administration Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. Left-leaning columnist Eugene Robinson of The Washington Post rounded out the “good” list.

Those scoring lowest – “The Ugly” – with negative tallies were conservative columnist Cal Thomas; U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC); U.S. Senator Carl Levin (D-MI); U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman, a McCain supporter and Democrat-turned-Independent from Connecticut; Sam Donaldson of ABC; and conservative columnist George Will.

Landing between the two extremes – “The Bad” – were Howard Wolfson, communications director for Hillary Clinton’s 2008 campaign; former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a hopeful in the 2008 Republican primary; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Republican; Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the Democratic nominee for president in 2004; liberal columnist Bob Herbert of The New York Times; Andrea Mitchell of NBC; New York Times columnist Tom Friedman; the late David Broder, former columnist for The Washington Post; Chicago Tribune columnist Clarence Page; New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof; and Hillary Clinton.
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   5/9/2011, 10:45 am

Hilarious. Thanks for posting this. Notice how those who appear regularly on Fox (Gingrich,Lindsay Graham,Lieberman,Cal Thomas,etc) are all at the bottom? But IMO,no study like this could be complete without including William "The Bloody" Kristol,whose forecasts have been spectacularly wrong over the years. Google 'Bill Kristol predictions' and you'll see what I mean.

Here's a couple of my favorites...
Quote :
If [Hillary Clinton] gets a race against John Edwards and Barack Obama, shes going to be the nominee. Gore is the only threat to her, then. Barack Obama is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in a single Democratic primary. Ill predict that right now. William Kristol, Fox News Sunday, Dec. 17, 2006

April 4, 2003:
"There's been a certain amount of pop sociology in America ... that the Shia can't get along with the Sunni and the Shia in Iraq just want to establish some kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime. There's almost no evidence of that at all. Iraq's always been very secular."
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Scorpion

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   5/9/2011, 11:57 am

Artie60438 wrote:
Hilarious. Thanks for posting this. Notice how those who appear regularly on Fox (Gingrich,Lindsay Graham,Lieberman,Cal Thomas,etc) are all at the bottom? But IMO,no study like this could be complete without including William "The Bloody" Kristol,whose forecasts have been spectacularly wrong over the years. Google 'Bill Kristol predictions' and you'll see what I mean.

Here's a couple of my favorites...
Quote :
If [Hillary Clinton] gets a race against John Edwards and Barack Obama, shes going to be the nominee. Gore is the only threat to her, then. Barack Obama is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in a single Democratic primary. Ill predict that right now. William Kristol, Fox News Sunday, Dec. 17, 2006

April 4, 2003:
"There's been a certain amount of pop sociology in America ... that the Shia can't get along with the Sunni and the Shia in Iraq just want to establish some kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime. There's almost no evidence of that at all. Iraq's always been very secular."

You're certainly right about Kristol. I would also add Dick Morris to the list...

Worst Pundit In America: Dick Morris (In A Landslide)

Quote :
As bad as the political pundits were during the 2008 presidential race, I'm not sure that anyone can match the consistently dismal performance by Republican mouthpiece Dick Morris.

Time after time, Morris' predictions were not just flat out wrong, but they showed the staggering depth of his inability to understand the American public and how unfolding events were being received and digested. Rarely did a week go by during the general election that Morris predicted the 180-degree opposite of what would eventually transpire. It was astounding for its consistency.

There's a long list of his laughable predictions in the article.
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   5/9/2011, 1:05 pm

Scorpion wrote:

You're certainly right about Kristol. I would also add Dick Morris to the list...
Oh yeah. He's definitely a top tier contestant.
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Heretic

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   5/10/2011, 9:44 am

They limited their study to only 26, which is a shame. They should definitely do a followup; add more media muppets. And, of course, if there was any true journalism left in American media, such a study wouldn't be necessary.

The actual report is here. Each individual has their own page explaining how many articles were chosen, how many testable predictions were contained in the samples, etc. Skimming through, Hillary scored a zero. Sam Donaldson scored in the Bottom Five at -0.8. Thomas Freidman scored a 2. Huckabee and Gingrich scored around a 3. Krugman had 17 predictions, missing only one and hedging a second, scoring an 8.2.
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   5/16/2011, 11:04 pm

Two minute clip of MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell slicing and dicing some of the lame brain pundits who Trump suckered into believing he was serious. Meanwhile O'Donnel not only predicted months ago that it was a sham,he even correctly predicted the exact date Trump would drop out Laughing

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy


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Heretic

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   5/17/2011, 8:28 am

Artie60438 wrote:
Two minute clip of MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell slicing and dicing some of the lame brain pundits who Trump suckered into believing he was serious. Meanwhile O'Donnel not only predicted months ago that it was a sham,he even correctly predicted the exact date Trump would drop out Laughing

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy



Poe's law: “Without a winking smiley or other blatant display of humor, it is impossible to create a parody of fundamentalism that someone won't mistake for the real thing.”

We'll never know if Trump was the genuine article or not, but we have only the stupidity of the Tea Party to thank for his popularity. He, along with comedians around the world, are eternally grateful. Oh, and so are the Palins.
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   6/11/2011, 1:08 pm

Dick Morris says Obama is toast in 2012; ergo, Obama will be fine
Quote :
By Susan J. Demas
I often joke that as a pundit, I'm paid to be wrong. However, I'm not paid nearly as much as Dick Morris is and my track record is significantly better.

dick morris time magazine.jpgWhat's that about conservative DNA?
That's not really a tribute to my personal brilliance. Rather, it's a reflection on just how consistently wrong Dick Morris is, as Mark Nickolas has shown with a bevy of examples. (My personal favorite? Joe the Plumber will undoubtedly cost Obama the '08 election).

At an Oakland County Tea Party dinner this week, Dickie declared that President Barack Obama is toast is 2012.

"When I'm asked if Obama can win in 2012, my answer is: 'Are you kidding me? Of course not,'" he told the rapturous audience.

If I were the president, that would make me feel pretty good, especially given the dire jobs numbers and the kamikaze GOP strategy to screw with the debt limit ceiling.

I have no idea if Barack Obama will win next year, of course, and neither does Dick Morris. He could well be right, as he was that Republicans would win in '10 (because the law of averages shows that if you keep guessing the same thing, especially when there are just two choices, you will be correct eventually).

But it must be nice to have no shame, as Dick Morris nicely demonstrates by shilling for Matty Moroun on his anti-bridge misinformation campaign and slamming Republican Gov. Rick Snyder for not having enough conservative cajones.

Wonder if any of Morris' intrepid Tea Party fans bothered to ask about the status of his DNA, since he advised Bill Clinton for years. Probably not.

Sometimes it's too painful to admit that you've been had -- especially when you're paying the guy a lot of money. Or at least I can guess that Tea Partiers did for the privilege of Morris' company. After all, Dick Morris isn't wrong for free.
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   3/27/2012, 8:35 pm

Unfortunately we can expect lots more from this loon as he has a book coming out soon...
Dick Morris' Crackpot Predictions If Obama Gets Re-Elected
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How crazy is Dick Morris? So crazy that even Sean Hannity refused to buy into his Glenn-Beck-like fantasy of socialism, European rule and other cataclysms should Republican Doomsday occur and President Obama get re-elected.

Among other Doomsday scenarios, Morris predicted: He (Obama) will eliminate the private health insurance industry... make the United States a vassal state to a globalist entity... sign away our royalties of offshore oil drilling..."

Hannity listened without comment or probing for more until, finally, he put a stop to Morris' talk.

Morris has got to have an inlaw in a high place at Fox. How else to explain his continued presence there? He's been reprimanded for ethical lapses, made a series of outlandish predictions and analyses, and used Fox News airtime to further his personal vendetta against Hillary Clinton.

By the way, less than a year ago, Morris told Hannity, "I don’t think Obama has a prayer of getting re-elected."

Video via Media Matters.
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   7/21/2012, 1:48 pm

It's all over folks. According to world's worst pundit Dick Morris,Rombot wins in a landslide affraid
Dick Morris: Romney Wins in Landslide?
7/20/12
Quote :

All of the projections we released on Wednesday either showed Obama ahead or winning the electoral college outright. Intrade says Obama's likelihood of winning in November is 57.0%. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight is a bit more optimistic: 66.7%.

But some pundits still believe Romney will win.

These are the bullets:

Quote :
The polls are oversampling black voters, giving Obama an extra 2-percent.
Obama voters are not as enthusiastic as Romney voters and are not as likely to vote.
Romney will win all the states McCain won in 2008. No defections.
Obama will lose the Independent vote, giving most battleground states to Romney.
If we use a Morris Inspired algorithm in which Romney gets the Independents 2-to-1, Romney would win the election with 275 electoral votes.

For one, this is hardly a "landslide". And two, we may be very generous in giving the Independents to Romney --
Who can forget this famous book by Morris.....

Meanwhile Fox News and idiot O'Reilly still put this idiot on the air as if his opinions mean something. Who says Fox News is no good at producing comedy?
lol!
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   8/8/2012, 9:48 pm

Guess who has "The Real Poll Numbers"? None other than our favorite talking empty head,Dick Morris affraid
The Real Poll Numbers
Quote :
On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.

The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.

Now let's review this idiot's forecasting track record,shall we Very Happy
Dick Morris, analyst extraordinaire
Quote :
Dick Morris-style "analysis":

[O]n the apparent theory that Obama will get none of the undecided voter, Morris figures he’s on his way to at least an eleven-point loss.

Dick Morris is freakin' hilarious.

To put Morris' "analysis" in context, here's some of his greatest hits. Let's start with this, written the day before Hillary Clinton spoke at the Democratic convention in 2008 because he's psychic:

Quote :
Women from coast to coast will watch her and wonder why she isn’t on the ticket [...] Obama has a huge problem with female voters [...] He didn’t help himself with these women by not choosing Hillary. Now, when Hillary spends all of Tuesday night showing what a grievous omission leaving her off the ticket really was, the electoral consequences for Obama are likely to be horrific.

The electoral consequences were so horrific for Obama, that he only won women by 13 points. Okay, so maybe not so psychic.

Then there's his electoral college predictions:
As I wrote at the time:

Quote :
He thought Arkansas was lean Obama. McCain won it by 20 points. Not a single poll ever showed the state competitive.

He thought Louisiana was a tossup. Obama lost it by 19 points. Again, except for one suspect poll late in the game, no other polling showed the state competitive.

Tennessee as a tossup? In whose feverish mind? McCain won it by 17 points, and that was probably closer than many sane people expected.

Kentucky was just "lean McCain"? I guess that's better than calling it Lean Obama or tossup, but at a 17-point loss, it was always a solid McCain state.

In fact, of Morris' "tossup" states, only North Carolina really deserved that billing, and ended up a 50-50 split (with the narrowest of Obama advantages). Of the other four, three ended up double-digit McCain wins, and Arizona almost was at nine points.

How was Indiana -- with reams of polling showing it neck and neck -- "lean McCain" when the likes of Arizona, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia were "tossups"?

Morris blew Missouri (like me) and Indiana, but that's less interesting than their relative rankings compared to the likes of Tennessee and Arkansas. If you're going to have a "tossup" category (which is a cop out when making predictions), then you had to throw Missouri into it. No way it was "lean Obama" when your definition of "tossup" includes the likes of Tennessee and Louisiana. Same with Indiana.
In other words, Morris had no clue what he was talking about.

There's lots more! Like claiming—against the exit poll data—that every undecided voter went to John McCain in 2008, or that (no joke!) John McCain would win the youth vote because of Joe the Plumber (Obama won it 66-32), and did you know that Obama's presidency failed in its first 100 days because he did things that made Dick Morris cry?

Dick Morris has never been right about anything. Quite the opposite—he's been spectacularly wrong about everything. So if he says Obama is headed toward an 11-point loss, then feel free to breathe a sigh of relief. After you're finished laughing, that is.
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   8/13/2012, 7:05 pm

Dick Morris Cashes In On His Dishonest Romney Support
Quote :
Dick Morris' shameless punditry in support of Mitt Romney is now literally paying off for him.

Morris, the Fox News contributor and political prognosticator best known for being wrong about everything, has changed his tune on both Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan this election cycle. Whereas Morris said less than a week ago that he hoped Romney does not choose Ryan as a running mate, he called the announcement "terrific," "inspired" and a "jackpot." Morris, who had been a Romney critic before publicly announcing that he was going to lay off the Republican candidate because he wanted to defeat Obama, now regularly sings Romney's praises.

Coinciding with his flip-flop this week on Ryan, Morris sent out a paid fundraising email to his list today from a joint fundraising committee supporting Romney. The email was a personal fundraising appeal from Romney, which Morris wrote that he wanted to send "along with my endorsement of their campaign."

The email was "Paid for by Romney Victory, Inc., a joint fundraising committee authorized by and composed of Romney for President, Inc., the Republican National Committee, the Idaho Republican Party, the Massachusetts Republican Party, the Oklahoma Leadership Council, the Vermont Republican Federal Election Committee, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and the National Republican Congressional Committee."

Morris has regularly appeared on Fox News to tout candidates and political causes that have paid him. In just the past year, Morris has, at various points, promoted Republican presidential candidates Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, and Newt Gingrich; Republican Governor Scott Walker (R-WI); and Republican senate candidates Richard Mourdock and Josh Mandel on Fox News without mentioning that he was paid by them. (Morris eventually disclosed the payments from the Republican presidential candidates on Hannity after being questioned about it by the Associated Press.)

After Morris was reprimanded by Fox News earlier this year for attempting to auction off a tour of Fox News studios at a GOP fundraiser, Baltimore Sun television critic David Zurawik told Media Matters, "Is there anybody in the media you can think of who has less of an ethical compass?"
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   8/17/2012, 5:29 pm

Stupidest pundit alive speaks
Quote :
Dick Morris is a moron. I mean, he's objectively the dumbest person working in politics today despite fierce competition for the title. But what makes him extra special is that he doesn't rest on past failures like some lesser screwups. No, Dick works hard every day to make sure he keeps his crown.

Like today:
Quote :
@MittRomney really clarifies who he is with the @PaulRyanVP choice. The more I think about it, it's an act of brilliance.
— @DickMorrisTweet

By rule, that tweet proves that Mitt Romney really screwed the pooch with his decision. But in case you were wondering, "What might Dick Morris really know about VP selections?", here's what he knows, from Sept. 5, 2008:

Quote :
But it was McCain’s gutsy selection of Palin that opened the door to victory.

Case closed.
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   8/23/2012, 10:32 pm

The latest Dick Morris treasure.....
Dick Morris Calls Todd Akin Scandal ‘A Big Plus For Romney’
Quote :
How do we know that the Rep. Todd Akin debacle is going to be devastating for Mitt Romney? Dick Morris called it a “big plus for Romney” on the O’Reilly Factor last night. Kind of like Hurricane Katrina was going to be a “huge positive for Bush,” eh?
he discussion started with guest host Laura Ingraham trying to use the Akin story to attack the Democrats – because it’s their fault we’re talking about this instead of the important issues. Meaning, I suppose President Obama’s “you didn’t build that” comment or Vice President Biden’s “chains” remark.

But not to worry, Morris assured her. He said:

Quote :
I think that story is a big plus for Romney right now because the story is not that some kooky Republican Congressman running for the Senate said something stupid. That was the first story. Now the story is that the responsible leaders of the Republican Party – Romney and McConnell and Ryan and all of them – are piling on Akin to withdraw and he won’t. And that really sends a message to pro-choice women that they don’t have to be afraid of Mitt Romney, that they don’t have to vote for Obama because of that. And I think Romney is spinning this beautifully and it’s defanging the fear motivation in getting Democrats out to vote, particularly Democratic women out to vote for Obama.
But don't worry liberal haters. Fox will be blaming us again for a Republican's cruel stupidity in no time.
I'm finally beginning to understand the logic of why Fox has Sarah Palin as a political commentator. She's like a Rhodes Scholar next to this idiot
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   9/10/2012, 7:40 pm

Because it never gets old making fun of Dick Morris

Quote :
Had he stopped at "I don't think," it would've been the first time he's ever been right about anything.
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   9/20/2012, 10:31 pm

Quote :
6h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

I don't think the 47% comment was a mistake by Romney. He's telling the truth, I just wish it had been heard by the public in a speech.

8h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

I think Romney can run with the 47% issue, and make it a fight against welfare and entitlements, which the American people are in favor of.

9h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

The media is painting Romney as someone who makes constant gaffes,he's not misspeaking, he's stating his views which are solid and truthful.

11h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

The 47% comment for Romney could be a win if he handles it right. This is not just a "gotcha" moment, it's a moment where he told the truth.

13h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

47 Pct: Romney Stumbles On A Winning Issue - Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert! http://www.dickmorris.com/47-pct-romney-stumbles-on-a-winning-issue-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/ … #Election2012 #romney #ryan #obama #47percent
lol!


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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   9/25/2012, 9:37 am

Dick Morris Says Romney Is 'In A Very Strong Position' To Win
Quote :

Dick Morris visited the Hannity show for his regular Monday night gig last night and continued his wildly optimistic forecast for Romney’s electoral win in November. Normally, Hannity sits politely through Morris’ wacky predictions. But last night, as Morris forecast a Romney win Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia and Pennsylvania and is currently “competitive” in Michigan, Hannity could not pretend to buy it.

Hannity said he could not predict who would win the presidential election in November. But he tactily acknowledged that Romney’s in some real trouble right now because he urged the Romney campaign to “act as though it’s the 4th quarter and they’re down a touchdown and they need no-huddle offense and they need to bring it into the end zone.”

Morris, on the other hand, said he could predict the winner and it’s Romney. “He’s at the moment in a very strong position,” Morris insisted.

Of course, Morris may be the only one who thinks so. Nate Silver, at The New York Times, notes that Obama’s poll numbers, in the context of the historic polling of incumbents in September, along with Silver’s own predictions and those of bookmakers all give Obama about an 80% chance of being re-elected. And conservative pundits such as Peggy Noonan, David Brooks and Bill Kristol would seem to agree.

But as Morris went on to predict that Romney would run the table in Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia and Pennsylvania, Hannity could not keep quiet.

“Oh, come on,” he said.

Hilarious. It might be time to start looking at another profession when even Shawn Hannity isn't buying your bulls%#t.
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edge540

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   9/25/2012, 11:01 am

I knew Dick reminded me of somebody...



“He’s at the moment in a very strong position”

right
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   10/1/2012, 8:42 pm

Looks like Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid doesn't have anything to worry about Very Happy cheers
Quote :
When it's all said and done I think we're going to control the Senate 53/47, 52/48, 51/49. Somewhere right in that ballpark, but it's close.
7h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

I think Brown has a show of winning in Massachusetts. He was behind but with all this stuff coming out about Warren it may change.
8h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

Things are looking pretty good for us in the Senate. Not a wrap yet but it looks good.
11h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   10/4/2012, 9:32 pm

Nate Silver of www.fivethirtyeight.com
Q&A With Nate Silver on His New Book, Whether Romney Has a Shot, and Why He Doesn’t Play Fantasy Baseball Anymore
Quote :

What do you make of Dick Morris? You mention him in your book, and he's just the absolute least accurate pundit ever, and yet he still gets a platform.
I've been thinking about starting a hedge fund, just to invest in whatever Morris says won't happen. You have to actually be quite skilled to be that bad.

It's amazing. He said the other day that Romney would win by 4 or 5 points.
I know, that would be my secret plan if I were the Romney campaign, to get Morris to make a prediction of an Obama landslide. I'd definitely lay some money on Romney at that point. I think it's just, when you make that many poor predictions — and we're not just teasing him for one, he really does have a terrible track record — are you deluding yourself? Or is it all a show to rally your base? With him I don't really know, but, I see prediction as a way to judge whether you're, frankly, in touch with reality or not. We all have our views, and we look at this information in a certain way, and you test that by means of an event that you don't know the outcome to yet and seeing if your subjective point of view matches what unfolds. So I think a slightly impolite way to put it is that at best Dick Morris is detached from reality, and at worst I guess, he knows it and is just lying to people.
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   10/9/2012, 2:05 pm

Quote :
Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

It's really nice to see Romney moving into a narrow victory in the polls, even though they're rigged.
Well at least he's consistent Rolling Eyes
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   10/9/2012, 5:42 pm

Ah Ha! Rolling Eyes
Quote :
Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet
There's kind of a media conspiracy out there asking why was Obama so bad in the debate? It's so they can avoid saying how good Romney was.
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   10/23/2012, 3:47 pm

If you had any doubts as to how bad Romney did last night just look no further than Dick Morris's comments.
He's been on a tweeting fenzy since last night. Laughing
https://twitter.com/DickMorrisTweet
12m Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

This successful debate for Romney will continue his surge in the polls. #RomneyRyan2012 #Election2012
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41m Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

After the first 30 mins last night I thought it was going to be a long night for Romney. But he really turned it on in the last hour and won
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1h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

Last night about a third of the debate was on the US economy, school system, balanced budget, etc. A strategic win for Romney.
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1h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

There's no question that the more likable and presidential person last night was Romney.The more Nixonian person was Obama. #Election2012
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2h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

Last night Obama continued personally attacking Romney. It didn't come off as presidential, it came off as pestering. #RomneyRyan2012
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2h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

From Obama's point of view I thought that he rebutted the claim that he is a weak president. He came across as strong and forceful.
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3h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

Romney did a great job interjecting China into this debate. His point about the "trade war" was spot on. They need us more than we need them
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3h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

I think that Romney projected an image that will be very attractive to female voters and will continue his surge among women.
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4h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

UN Gun Control Is Back! http://www.dickmorris.com/un-gun-control-is-back/ … #unitednations #guncontrol #ATTtreaty #obama #hillary #secondamendment #NRAvote #gop
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4h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

Romney was very effective in differentiating himself from Bush 43. Obama tried to portray Romney as Bush 43, but Mitt was able to counter.
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4h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

Last night Romney proved that he was presidential and that his inexperience in foreign policy would not be an issue during his presidency.
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5h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

Romney won the third debate just like he won the other two. Romney won because he accomplished his strategic objectives. #RomneyRyan2012
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6h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

Romney Gains In Third Debate - Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert! http://www.dickmorris.com/romney-gains-in-third-debate-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/ … #debates #Election2012 #romney #obama @hannityshow #gop
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Click Here To Sign The Petition Telling The UN To Keep Out Of U.S. Elections! http://dickmorris.rallycongress.com/8104/sign-petition-telling-un-to-keep-out-us-elections/
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Thx for joining my coverage of tonight's debate. Visit http://www.dickmorris.com tomorrow for my video analysis of the debate. #romney
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Romney will continue his surge. Please watch my lunchtime video tomorow for my reaction to this debate and reflections on impact
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Romney shows understands average person. Bipartisanship is key point for Romney. Genuine patriotism. More than Obama shows
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Romney shows optimism. Obama forceful and strong but not nice and optimistic. Romney is good man,, nice guy. comes over well
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Romney won on military strength, Iran, Syria. Did not pursue Libya enough. Obama did well on al Qaeda. But seemed harsh
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Romney wins this debate by holding his own and showing that he is not reckless and irresponsible and won't get us into a war
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates conclusions: Bush's fault, Obama says. Romney great point on goning back to last four years. Obama effective in closing
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Romney scored over apolgy tour and daylight with Israel. Good on Iran. Obama showed strength, more in speeches than in policies
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Romney did not draw big contrasts with Obama over foreign policy. Great contrasts on economy and economy is what matters
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Romney debunked the fear of women that he would go to war. He was restrained. Not a Bush like cowboy. No shoot from hip
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Summary: Romney showed that he was at least the equal of Obama on foreign policy, normally a rpeserve of the incumbent
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Obama interrupting looks very bad. Romney doing very well on autos. Good hit on solyndra. Obama as Biden
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates China only has a 30% advantag ein currency rather than 40%. Romney wins the segment on China. Romney is showing that he can go
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates great Romney hit on China. Now Obama comes up with a totally politial shot in response to Romney's stirring lofty rhetoric
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates great point about trade war with China. Read Scrwed to learn more about this. Excellent rap on China. Romnmey ahead 5-3
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates currency manipulation. Good line on currency manipulation. hacking, counterfitting. Excellent indcitment Read Screwed we say it
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates China wants world "to be free and open" are you kidding Mitt?? Good case by Romney about weakness.
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Romney right on governments don't create jobs. good hit on nuclear Iran. Romney is actin glike he's already elected. Caution
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates "trade task force"??? China. What about currency manipulation? China is running rings around us. Romney can fry him on this
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates In Egypt we put the Muslim Brotherhood in power.
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates good statement by Romney. Excellent. "make sure Pakistan isn't corrupt??? its the msot corrupt nation on earth (except for aFgh
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates good bipartisanship by romney on drones. We don't interrogate terrorists anymore, we kill them. No new intelligence
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Romney projects responsibility, knowledge, restraint, and commitment to peace. All key points especially with women
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Romney shows hes knowledgable but that he wouldn't do any cahnges from Obama's foreign policy except maybe Israel
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Obama loses when he goes back to economy. Debate is turning boring. Read Screwed, our book, for how bad Pakistan is
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18h Dick Morris Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#debates Romney endorses Obama on Afghanistan. Testifies to Obama's success! But there is no credit for anyone on this issue
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   10/24/2012, 2:33 pm

Quote :
Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet
The three debates are over now, I think Romney won. He's surging, and he's going to carry this election in a landslide. #RomneyRyan2012
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2h Dick Morris
Well at least he got one thing right. Shocked The 3 debates are over.
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Artie60438

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PostSubject: Re: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media   10/24/2012, 8:50 pm

Wrong Way Morris has been on tweeting binge of late. His latest?
Quote :
Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet
It's fascinating to watch that American people fall in love with Romney. I can't wait for election day. #RomneyRyan2012
This is the latest wingnut strategy. Pretend that you're actually winning and try to fool enough people into voting for you just because you're supposedly going win.

The problem is that there is no electoral college stats that have Ever shown Romney to be ahead. Shocked Not once,thoughout the entire campaign has he led.
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